14. Demographic Transition in Developing Countries

Global Problems of Population Growth (MCDB 150)

By 1950, in most of the underdeveloped world, mortality had fallen to about half its pre-modern rate. The birth rate, however, had remained high and, by 1950, was about twice the death rate. For the rest of the century, both rates fell dramatically and in parallel, maintaining the gap. The enormous excess of births over deaths in this period is known as 'the population explosion.' By 1990, the world population was growing at almost 90 million a year. Comparing the Demographic Transition in Europe and in the currently developing countries, the latter started 100 years later at a much lower economic level, fell from much higher birth and death rates, occurred much faster and with a much higher population growth rate, and added vastly more people. The developing countries saw the benefits that had accrued to the West as a result of the transition and then rapidly appropriated it for themselves. But while European countries may have quadrupled their population over 200 years, third world countries grew by as much as ten times in a much shorter period and they are still growing at a rapid rate. The problems of this rapid growth (still about 80 million a year) abound. The traditional scourges of starvation (9 million deaths a year), disease (AIDS, Tuberculosis, Malaria -- all claim between 1 and 2 million deaths per year) and war (Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs ~200,000 deaths) are all far too small to stabilize population. People in developing countries who want to limit their fertility, are often afraid of contraceptives (especially side-effects) and yet are willing to undergo horrendously dangerous illegal abortions to avert a childbirth.

00:00 - Chapter 1. Introduction
11:22 - Chapter 2. Issues with Mortality and Fertility Change in Developing Countries
22:27 - Chapter 3. Volume of Population Growth in Mortality Transition
26:55 - Chapter 4. Comparing Fertility Transition to Famine
36:57 - Chapter 5. Comparing Mortality Transition and Disease and War
44:49 - Chapter 6. Desires to Decrease Fertility
57:11 - Chapter 7. Abortion
01:03:05 - Chapter 8. Family Planning and Fertility Decline Worldwide

Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://open.yale.edu/courses

This course was recorded in Spring 2009.